Andrew Orriss attended the recent HMI conference and provides the following update and feedback for members.
“There was much discussion in the conference about the market trading conditions and the ‘chaos’ the Government has caused. Much of the vitriol was pointed towards planning and the lack of local housing plans, stating it was the worst it has ever been. The housing minister took the opportunity to do her first election broadcast highlighting all the great plans she has to help house building, to groans of disbelief from the floor.
It was noted that since planning permissions granted are at an all-time low (in the first 6 months of 2023 down 20% from 2022). The time lag between permission and starts will result in a continued market slowing regardless of upswings in activity due to interest rates correcting themselves (although back to 4% or 5% levels not the 1% we have become used to) and against increased income/affordability and increases in consumer confidence.
Also noted was that the “need” buyers will still drive demand whereas the “want” buyers will likely join the “wait and see” segment of the buyer market, holding back on buying decisions as the political landscape may improve affordability.
We were guided to not believe in popular press stories about housing market collapse as the real data suggests only a 5% reduction in selling process YOY.”
STA will be publishing the next Market Analysis report in December, which will once again lean heavily on the this content.
Please see link to download the latest market report from HBF which I hope you find useful.